Updated on Sunday 07 June 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
US 109802 (+670) 1920061 (+22681) 500849 (+9143) 1309410 (+12868)
United Kingdom 40548 (+204) 286294 (+1560) 1230 (+2) 244516 (+1354)
Brazil 35930 (+904) 672846 (+27075) 277149 (+10209) 359767 (+15962)
Italy 33846 (+72) 234801 (+270) 165078 (+1297) 35877 (-1099)
France 29145 (+31) 190759 (+579) 70924 (+302) 90690 (+246)
Spain 27135 (+1) 241310 (+332) 150376 (+0) 63799 (+331)
Mexico 13511 (+341) 113619 (+3593) 80830 (+2989) 19278 (+263)
Belgium 9580 (+14) 59072 (+165) 16190 (+78) 33302 (+73)
Germany 8673 (+15) 185450 (+526) 168958 (+478) 7819 (+33)
Iran 8209 (+75) 169425 (+2269) 132038 (+2297) 29178 (-103)
Canada 7850 (+72) 96475 (+528) 54087 (+1013) 34538 (-557)
India 6946 (+297) 246622 (+10438) 118695 (+5462) 120981 (+4679)
Netherlands 6030 (+6) 47541 (+183) 181 (+0) 41330 (+177)
Russia 5717 (+197) 458102 (+8846) 220935 (+8698) 231450 (-49)
Peru 5301 (+139) 191758 (+4358) 82731 (+3517) 103726 (+702)
Turkey 4669 (+21) 169218 (+878) 135322 (+1922) 29227 (-1065)
Sweden 4656 (+17) 43887 (+948) 0 (+0) 39231 (+931)
China 4638 (+0) 84186 (+9) 79424 (+4) 124 (+5)
Ecuador 3608 (+74) 42728 (+1153) 21020 (+452) 18100 (+627)
Pakistan 1935 (+97) 93983 (+4734) 32581 (+1383) 59467 (+3254)
Switzerland 1921 (+0) 30956 (+20) 28700 (+100) 335 (-80)
Indonesia 1801 (+31) 30514 (+993) 9907 (+464) 18806 (+498)
Ireland 1678 (+8) 25183 (+20) 22698 (+0) 807 (+12)
Chile 1541 (+93) 127745 (+5246) 103817 (+4459) 22387 (+694)
Portugal 1474 (+9) 34351 (+382) 20807 (+281) 12070 (+92)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 06 June 2020 395080 (+3838) 6807027 (+126286) 3006409 (+72697)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 07 June 2020 390373 ( +2511) 6801162 ( +93307) 3068783 ( +70213)
Mon 08 June 2020 392753 ( +2379) 6892062 ( +90900) 3137833 ( +69050)
Tue 09 June 2020 395004 ( +2251) 6980447 ( +88385) 3205541 ( +67708)
Wed 10 June 2020 397131 ( +2127) 7066226 ( +85779) 3271743 ( +66202)
Thu 11 June 2020 399139 ( +2008) 7149323 ( +83097) 3336289 ( +64547)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 06 June 2020 4638 (+0) 84186 (+9) 79424 (+4)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 07 June 2020 4637 ( +0) 84091 ( +0) 78422 ( +0)
Mon 08 June 2020 4637 ( +0) 84091 ( +0) 78422 ( +0)
Tue 09 June 2020 4637 ( +0) 84091 ( +0) 78422 ( +0)
Wed 10 June 2020 4637 ( +0) 84091 ( +0) 78422 ( +0)
Thu 11 June 2020 4637 ( +0) 84092 ( +0) 78422 ( +0)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 06 June 2020 27135 (+1) 241310 (+332) 150376 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 07 June 2020 27588 ( +4) 238368 ( +99) 155444 ( +290)
Mon 08 June 2020 27592 ( +3) 238459 ( +91) 155715 ( +271)
Tue 09 June 2020 27594 ( +3) 238542 ( +83) 155968 ( +253)
Wed 10 June 2020 27597 ( +2) 238617 ( +76) 156205 ( +237)
Thu 11 June 2020 27599 ( +2) 238686 ( +69) 156426 ( +221)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 06 June 2020 33846 (+72) 234801 (+270) 165078 (+1297)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 07 June 2020 33460 ( +25) 232343 ( +98) 165057 ( +1181)
Mon 08 June 2020 33483 ( +23) 232433 ( +90) 166178 ( +1120)
Tue 09 June 2020 33504 ( +21) 232515 ( +82) 167240 ( +1062)
Wed 10 June 2020 33523 ( +19) 232590 ( +75) 168246 ( +1006)
Thu 11 June 2020 33541 ( +18) 232659 ( +68) 169199 ( +952)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 06 June 2020 40548 (+204) 286294 (+1560) 1230 (+2)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 07 June 2020 39814 ( +107) 277059 ( +589) 1567 ( +36)
Mon 08 June 2020 39912 ( +98) 277602 ( +543) 1604 ( +37)
Tue 09 June 2020 40003 ( +91) 278103 ( +501) 1642 ( +38)
Wed 10 June 2020 40086 ( +83) 278566 ( +462) 1681 ( +39)
Thu 11 June 2020 40163 ( +77) 278992 ( +426) 1721 ( +40)

United States

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 06 June 2020 109802 (+670) 1920061 (+22681) 500849 (+9143)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 07 June 2020 108271 ( +411) 1892667 ( +11839) 505512 ( +6580)
Mon 08 June 2020 108650 ( +379) 1903833 ( +11165) 511387 ( +5875)
Tue 09 June 2020 108999 ( +349) 1914348 ( +10516) 516603 ( +5216)
Wed 10 June 2020 109321 ( +322) 1924239 ( +9891) 521211 ( +4608)
Thu 11 June 2020 109617 ( +296) 1933532 ( +9292) 525264 ( +4053)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 06 June 2020 29145 (+31) 190759 (+579) 70924 (+302)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 07 June 2020 28053 ( +3) 186595 ( +14) 70011 ( +185)
Mon 08 June 2020 28056 ( +3) 186607 ( +12) 70182 ( +171)
Tue 09 June 2020 28058 ( +2) 186618 ( +11) 70340 ( +158)
Wed 10 June 2020 28061 ( +2) 186628 ( +10) 70486 ( +146)
Thu 11 June 2020 28062 ( +2) 186636 ( +9) 70621 ( +135)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 06 June 2020 8673 (+15) 185450 (+526) 168958 (+478)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 07 June 2020 8589 ( +8) 183217 ( +96) 166474 ( +173)
Mon 08 June 2020 8597 ( +8) 183304 ( +87) 166630 ( +156)
Tue 09 June 2020 8604 ( +7) 183384 ( +80) 166771 ( +141)
Wed 10 June 2020 8610 ( +6) 183457 ( +73) 166898 ( +127)
Thu 11 June 2020 8615 ( +6) 183524 ( +67) 167013 ( +115)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 06 June 2020 6030 (+6) 47541 (+183) 181 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 07 June 2020 5955 ( +3) 46887 ( +49) 243 ( +6)
Mon 08 June 2020 5957 ( +3) 46932 ( +45) 249 ( +7)
Tue 09 June 2020 5960 ( +2) 46973 ( +41) 256 ( +7)
Wed 10 June 2020 5962 ( +2) 47011 ( +38) 263 ( +7)
Thu 11 June 2020 5963 ( +2) 47047 ( +35) 270 ( +7)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 06 June 2020 9580 (+14) 59072 (+165) 16190 (+78)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 07 June 2020 9377 ( +2) 56966 ( +17) 15973 ( +24)
Mon 08 June 2020 9378 ( +1) 56981 ( +15) 15995 ( +21)
Tue 09 June 2020 9380 ( +1) 56994 ( +14) 16014 ( +20)
Wed 10 June 2020 9381 ( +1) 57007 ( +12) 16032 ( +18)
Thu 11 June 2020 9382 ( +1) 57018 ( +11) 16048 ( +16)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 06 June 2020 4656 (+17) 43887 (+948) 0 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 07 June 2020 4640 ( +28) 44209 ( +953) nan ( +nan)
Mon 08 June 2020 4666 ( +26) 45193 ( +983) nan ( +nan)
Tue 09 June 2020 4690 ( +24) 46206 ( +1013) nan ( +nan)
Wed 10 June 2020 4712 ( +23) 47249 ( +1043) nan ( +nan)
Thu 11 June 2020 4733 ( +21) 48321 ( +1072) nan ( +nan)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 06 June 2020 1153 (+16) 25986 (+576) 12641 (+231)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 07 June 2020 1126 ( +5) 25838 ( +247) 12384 ( +136)
Mon 08 June 2020 1131 ( +5) 26074 ( +235) 12511 ( +127)
Tue 09 June 2020 1136 ( +5) 26298 ( +224) 12630 ( +119)
Wed 10 June 2020 1140 ( +4) 26510 ( +212) 12740 ( +111)
Thu 11 June 2020 1144 ( +4) 26711 ( +201) 12843 ( +103)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 06 June 2020 1921 (+0) 30956 (+20) 28700 (+100)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 07 June 2020 1913 ( +0) 30674 ( +1) 28363 ( +7)
Mon 08 June 2020 1913 ( +0) 30675 ( +1) 28370 ( +6)
Tue 09 June 2020 1914 ( +0) 30675 ( +1) 28375 ( +6)
Wed 10 June 2020 1914 ( +0) 30676 ( +1) 28380 ( +5)
Thu 11 June 2020 1914 ( +0) 30677 ( +1) 28385 ( +4)

Brazil

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 06 June 2020 35930 (+904) 672846 (+27075) 277149 (+10209)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 07 June 2020 36088 ( +832) 691320 ( +26413) 284750 ( +11425)
Mon 08 June 2020 36893 ( +805) 717902 ( +26582) 296309 ( +11559)
Tue 09 June 2020 37670 ( +777) 744589 ( +26686) 307975 ( +11667)
Wed 10 June 2020 38418 ( +748) 771314 ( +26725) 319723 ( +11748)
Thu 11 June 2020 39136 ( +718) 798012 ( +26698) 331525 ( +11802)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 06 June 2020 8209 (+75) 169425 (+2269) 132038 (+2297)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 07 June 2020 8055 ( +30) 171433 ( +2674) 118059 ( +410)
Mon 08 June 2020 8084 ( +29) 174092 ( +2659) 118444 ( +385)
Tue 09 June 2020 8112 ( +27) 176732 ( +2639) 118806 ( +362)
Wed 10 June 2020 8138 ( +26) 179346 ( +2614) 119146 ( +340)
Thu 11 June 2020 8163 ( +25) 181930 ( +2584) 119466 ( +320)

Comparison of different countries

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.